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_OC_InitNavbar("child_node":["title":"My library","url":" =114584440181414684107\u0026source=gbs_lp_bookshelf_list","id":"my_library","collapsed":true,"title":"My History","url":"","id":"my_history","collapsed":true,"title":"Books on Google Play","url":" ","id":"ebookstore","collapsed":true],"highlighted_node_id":"");The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and InvestingMichael J. MauboussinHarvard Business Press, 2012 - Business & Economics - 293 pages 1 ReviewReviews aren't verified, but Google checks for and removes fake content when it's identified"Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck." -- From the Introduction The trick, of course, is figuring out just how many of our successes (and failures) can be attributed to each--and how we can learn to tell the difference ahead of time. In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives--yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions. The Success Equation helps us move toward this goal by: - Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant- Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck- Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to work Showcasing Mauboussin's trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, The Success Equation is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions--in business and in life. if (window['_OC_autoDir']) _OC_autoDir('search_form_input');Preview this book What people are saying - Write a reviewReviews aren't verified, but Google checks for and removes fake content when it's identifiedUser Review - Flag as inappropriateGRam PANCHAYAT .RAJ .BHUVAN CHHPARA. CHAKIA. EAST CHAMPARANME BAL KATNE VALA KIRA BARAMAD HUAA HAIMADHUCHAI GAV ME PRATHMIK SCHOOL KEPASS




The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck...



We are very good at fooling ourselves about our own success, a phenomenon that psychologists call the self-serving attribution bias. It is common for us to attribute success to our own terrific skill, even in endeavors that are determined mostly by luck. Part of the explanation is that we see ourselves as capable agents. We can do things. We can make things happen. So we assume that our skill caused the success we experience. On the other hand, we readily attribute failure to external causes, including bad luck.


This section deals with an exception to the paradox of skill rule in basketball where there has been an expansion of the people playing the game but they all tend to be very tall. So the variations in skill are drawn from a narrow pool. This distinguishes the game from others where a variety of body types can be successful.


We have seen that path dependence and social interaction lead to inequality. Technology and competition also contribute to this phenomenon. But there is a crucial assumption underlying all of these models of superstardom: that we know exactly who is most skillful. That assumption, as we will see, is false. Social influence leads not just to inequality, but to a fundamental lack of predictability as well. More skill gives people an edge in attaining success, but like the red marbles that started out in the majority, that edge offers no assurance that they will end up on top.


Because investing involves so much luck in the short term, it would stand to reason that short-term success or failure is not a reliable test of skill. But all of us effortlessly find causes for the effects we see, and making money appears to be clear evidence that the investment manager knew what he was doing. Investing is a field where this fallacy is very costly.


This idea that both skill and luck play a role in nearly every outcome, including the careers of the most successful investors in the world, is a powerful one. Once you recognize that luck or chance, whatever the amount, is important makes you view the world in very different ways. You can no longer look at the cover of a business magazine featuring a Fortune 500 CEO or hot startup founder the same way again.


If I tell you that luck and skill contribute to success, you get it. But your brain doesn’t. There is a part of our left hemisphere, dubbed the Interpreter, that creates a narrative every time something happens that explains the cause and effect. Your Interpreter doesn’t know anything about luck, so there is a creeping determinism. You believe the thing that just happened is the only thing that could have happened. It plays out in our love of stories. If I present a person with a statistic and a story, the story will swamp the stat. A physician friend says that if he tells a patient that a treatment works 50 percent of the time but the last patient who took the treatment is doing splendidly, then 90 percent of the time people go with it. Why do I care about skill and luck? Because I want to be able to predict or think about the future more intelligently than I do now. 041b061a72


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